General Election predictor website shows expected result in every London borough if vote was today

The General Election is coming up fast on July 4 and the incumbent Conservatives are miles behind opposition Labour in the polls. But how does that actually translate to seats in the House of Commons, and particularly the London seats?

Electoral Calculus has predicted that Labour will win a staggering 320-seat majority as of May 28 based on poll results. This is almost double Tony Blair’s Labour landslide victory in 1997 with a majority of 167 seats.

London has 73 MP constituencies and Electoral Calculus has predicted which way each will vote. Let’s take a look at all of them and tot up the scores at the end to see which party would come out on top in London if the vote was taken today.

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For each constituency, we have listed the party of the current holder, the party of the predicted holder and the predicted percentage of the vote the winner will get to win the seat. In the final column, we have noted whether there is a change or not in the holder of the seat. This is based on the latest opinion polls collated by the website to give an indication of results, though it doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. Famously the polls for the Brexit vote were way off the actual result.

So Electoral Calculus has predicted that the Tories will lose 21 of their London seats – 18 to Labour and three to the Liberal Democrats. They are predicted to retain just one seat in the whole of the capital – Old Bexley and Sidcup. Every other Conservative MP is due to be ousted, including Boris Johnson’s old seat in Uxbridge and South Ruislip – now held by Conservative Steven Tuckwell after a by-election last year – and Greg Hands in Chelsea and Fulham.

Dianne Abbot is predicted to comfortably win her seat back in Hackney North and Stoke Newington despite recent controversy surrounding her selection as a Labour candidate. Keir Starmer is also predicted to win his seat in Holborn and St Pancras with ease, as well as Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North.

Labour are not predicted to lose a single seat in the capital, only gain them from Conservative hands. The Liberal Democrats are also in for a good run, not losing any of their three South West London seats and also being predicted to gain three from the Conservatives in Sutton and Cheam, Wimbledon and Carshalton and Wallington. But, anything can happen on polling day and it’s important to remember these predictions are based on the limited number of people spoken to by pollsters at this moment in time. Only going out and voting on July 4 will have any effect either way.

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