Benjamin Sesko preference explained as Arsenal worries over Viktor Gyokeres understood

With the debate over whether Arsenal should sign Viktor Gyokeres or Benjamin Sesko still raging, there appears to be no light at the end of the tunnel just yet. football.londonunderstands that while the Slovenian is perhaps a preference of Mikel Arteta, discussions are still open on both fronts.

Sporting director Andrea Berta remains in talks across multiple fronts in the window as the Italian tries to make a solid first impression during his first transfer market, leading the club’s recruitment. Naturally, as seems to be the case with the Arsenal fan base, there is a desire to pick a side.

Whether it was with Arsene Wenger, Edu Gaspar, Mesut Ozil, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang—the list goes on—there is always this will to divide and sit firmly on one side of the fence or the other. Mikel Arteta is perhaps the most prevalent example, although in fairness, it feels more like a loud minority of critics these days than a genuine split on the Spaniard.

In regard to Gyokeres and Sesko, and bear in mind this is an opinion piece looking at the pair, I have been fairly split but leaning toward the same man the club appear to be most keen on. For me, Sesko is the smarter investment of the pair and the variables that come with Gyokeres while impressive, especially when considering goal volume, are just too much.

There is no doubt about Gyokeres’ ability to score goals, at least not for the most dominant club in Portugal from the last two seasons, but whether this would translate to the Premier League is another thing. Many point to his goals in England with Coventry, but when you look at his non-penalty goal tally going from 18 in the Championship (for reference, Southampton’s Adam Armstrong managed 17), to 24 with Sporting, suddenly these massive figures are not as tempting.

In fairness, Sesko managed only 11 non-penalty goals this season in the Bundesliga, down from 14 the year before. So why then do Arsenal see the Slovenian as the better investment?

His age is certainly a factor because, having only just turned 22, Sesko has so much more room to grow than Gyokeres, who turns 27 this season. Despite claims of a £93million deal, it is thought the transfer fee would not be this high. The player has a gentleman’s agreement with Leipzig to negotiate his exit this summer should a club like Arsenal come in.

Both Sesko and Gyokeres would be theoretically supplied by, on paper, better players were either to join Arsenal. However, Sporting’s dominance in Portugal is simply greater than the Gunners’ in the Premier League and wildly more impressive than Leipzig’s in the Bundesliga.

Leipzig rank 12th in the league for shot-creating actions per 90 (21.21), Bayern Munich are top with 34.35 and the next best in second are Bayer Leverkusen with 26.76. It therefore makes it clear just how much Sporting dominate their respective division, the same metric for them tallies at 32.59 per 90 – Benfica and Porto are the next highest on 29.09 and 25.65 respectively.

Gyokeres is fortunate to have such frequent service compared to Sesko. This is where the most important metric comes into play: how each player performs relative to the chances they’re receiving.

The best way to measure finishing efficiency is to compare non-penalty goals to non-penalty expected goals (xG) over the two seasons at their latest clubs. xG, for those less familiar, is a metric which is generated per shot and assesses the likelihood that a shot has of being scored.

The metric takes into account the position that the ball was when the shot was taken, how close any defenders were or whether they were in the way of the shot, the position of the goalkeeper, whether the shot was hit first-time or whether a touch was taken first, and therefore the speed and type of pass which was sent into the player before the strike. Thousands of shots, and counting, have been used to generate the algorithm, and it is used by clubs around the world in analysis and scouting.

In 2023/24, Gyokeres scored 24 non-penalty goals for Sporting CP in the league against a non-penalty xG value of 18.7. This means that he outperformed what was expected from his attempts on goal throughout the season by 5.3. The following season, he scored 27 non-penalty goals against a value of 21.4 xG, outscoring the metric by 5.6.

In regards to Sesko, in 2023/24, he managed to score 14 non-penalty goes against an npxG of 7.7, a massive outperformance of 6.3. In the following campaign, he returned 11 on-penalty goals against an npxG of 8.4, outperforming the metric by 2.6. A drop from 2023/24, where Leipzig too dipped in their level of threat and creativity, which could explain the knock-on effect to their centre-forward.

It tells us both players are consistently outperforming their npxG, with Gyokeres’ numbers being more level across both campaigns. Again, this does give me more assurance that choosing the younger player, performing in a tougher league with greater characteristics that suit Arsenal, is the right choice.

With much more room to grow, Sesko’s profile indicates the chance to have an immediate impact at Arsenal while also being able to become one of Europe’s best. Arsenal made the mistake of not pushing through a deal for Alexander Isak while at Real Sociedad; it does feel like passing up on Sesko here has shades of a similar situation repeating itself.