On the one hand, Chelsea are likely to end up with a significant profit on Nicolas Jackson and have found two alternatives up front who can account for the goals lost. On the other, Joao Pedro and Liam Delap scored a combined 15 non-penalty Premier League goals last season.
That is five more than Jackson managed on his own but is only one ahead of his first-year tally at Chelsea. The difference is that Joao Pedro and Delap played more than 4,500 minutes (although not all of them came as a striker), whereas Jackson played between 2,000-2,500.
At his best, Jackson was a creative forward capable of scoring at least 15 goals a season with plenty of off-ball benefits and link-up. At his worst, he was a sporadic finisher and an unreliable member of the team.
He was often both within games and short bursts. Whether Chelsea ever gave Jackson the best environment to succeed is also worth considering. He never had a proper backup despite coming in as a newly formed striker at 22.
There are two strands to the questions left behind by his loan with a conditional obligation to buy at Bayern Munich. Firstly, are Joao Pedro and Delap capable of providing enough firepower for a team competing on four fronts? And secondly, do Chelsea have enough cover for the pair?
The talk of backup or rotation strikers has been almost constant at Chelsea for the past two years. Jackson had very little support, certainly not like Delap and Joao Pedro will feel from each other now. And this is why this conversation is being had right now anyway.
Learn more
Few doubted that Chelsea had made the right call in buying Delap for Enzo Maresca’s squad. He is a young player with Premier League experience. Plenty of quality but also room to grow. He was initially imagined as genuine competition for Jackson, something that hasn’t been present through Christopher Nkunku or Marc Guiu for a variety of reasons.
Then it became clear that actually, Delap and Joao Pedro would likely be taking Jackson’s place. The start to Joao Pedro’s Chelsea career leaves a tantalising hint that he could be an elite striker himself.
His talent was not doubted but his fit was. If Jackson was going to stay, Joao Pedro would be a floater between the left wing, No.10 (behind Cole Palmer), and an option up front. He doesn’t weaken the group but did not have an obvious role. Now he is the first name on the teamsheet somewhere.
Whether that is at centre forward or further back, it does not matter. Delap’s injury on Saturday against Fulham changes the picture somewhat again.
Joao Pedro is now the only senior striker available and is also the best replacement for Palmer. Chelsea do have choices in attacking midfield but Joao Pedro is probably the best.
He cannot be in two places at once, though. Facundo Buonanotte has come in on loan to help reduce the effects of Palmer’s absence. Estevao Willian can also play in the hole as well.
One of those is now the most likely outcome when Palmer does not play. Up front, the scenario is different. Joao Pedro went from being third choice (on paper) to the only one heading into the first international break.
Jackson is out and Delap is sidelined. Guiu was recalled for a mixture of being too low in the Sunderland pecking order already and because he represents some form of alternative when Maresca needs it.
At 19, he is still incredibly raw and has plenty of growing to do. There were bright signs in his Conference League campaign last season but that is not the same as playing for a full strength Chelsea side in the Premier League and Champions League.
Guiu offered enough to suggest he was more than worth the £5million fee paid to Barcelona last summer on a low risk, high reward transfer. He showed that Chelsea would be able to, if nothing else, make a healthy profit further down the line.
There is not yet a bank of evidence that depicts him as a top-level striker, even as third choice. Guiu has less than two hours of Premier League experience to his name. In La Liga, he has barely an hour to add to that.
The Sunderland loan always looked misjudged as he went to a team needing more assurances. They were not willing to take the plunge on Guiu but instead saw him as one of several players who could be used throughout.
For Guiu’s own personal improvement, he needs minutes. That could come at Chelsea in the coming two months whilst Delap recovers from his hamstring strain but it will be a big ask for him to provide the same level of impact.
That has a knock-on effect for how much Maresca feels able to leave Joao Pedro out and also the skills on offer. Guiu is energetic but is not close to Joao Pedro on many of the most important attributes.
Chelsea felt that Guiu’s return was better than spending money late on in the window out of desperation. They have left themselves short, though, and will now play on a tightrope.
There is plenty hanging on Joao Pedro staying fit, Delap being back on time, and then the pair producing at a good enough rate to become adequate long-term replacements for Jackson. If one thing breaks here, all of a sudden Chelsea could be turning to Under-21s/Development Squad captain Shumaira Mheuka.
He is only 17 but continues to make great strides in the youth game. On Wednesday he scored for England Under-19s having risen through the ranks rapidly over the past two years.
Mheuka was signed from Brighton in 2022 after scoring twice against Chelsea’s Under-17s as a 13-year-old. He is viewed as one of the best youngsters in the country and has turned his progress into goals with four in his first three Premier League 2 games of the season.
Now captain of the team managed by Calum McFarlane – who replaced Felipe Coelho as coach over the summer – Mheuka is aiming to build on a handful of first-team appearances. He benefited from the Conference League, as did many from Cobham, but will have his eyes on a full year of starting PL2 matches.
Mheuka went from Under-18s to Under-21s last season, scoring four goals in PL2. He has already matched that after an opening day hat-trick in a win over Manchester City, the reigning champions. Instead of going down the loan route at his age, Chelsea have opted to keep him in-house and it appears to be the right call.
He scored another against adult opposition in League Two side Shrewsbury Town in the EFL Trophy last week. Albeit they are struggling at the bottom of the football league, it is another tick by Mheuka’s name.
Chelsea may end up paying Brighton £4.25million for Mheuka after a tribunal deemed the initial compensation package to be too low. It is already a bargain fee in the grand scheme of things.
Promoting Mheuka to being behind Joao Pedro and Delap would be premature, but do not be surprised if he plays more for the senior side again. Chelsea are short of top end strikers right now but with Mheuka, they believe there is a future star. He could have a part to play this season.
