The modelling comes after Keir Starmer offered major concessions last week after a rebellion over 120 Labour MPs threatened the government with defeat in the Commons
Around 150,000 people will still be pushed into poverty under the government’s watered-down welfare cuts, new modelling suggests.
It comes after Keir Starmer offered major concessions last week after a rebellion over 120 Labour MPs threatened the government with defeat in the Commons.
In a dramatic climbdown, the Prime Minister agreed to protect all existing claimants from losing Personal Independence Payments – a key disability benefit. The changes to PIP will now only apply to new claims from November 2026.
But new modelling published by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) today says an additional 150,000 individuals will be in relative poverty after housing costs by the end of 2029-30.
The modelling said the estimate does not include any “potential positive impact” from extra funding to support people with disabilities and long-term health conditions into work.
A previous analysis – before the concessions – said the reforms would result in an extra 250,000 people, including 50,000 children, would fall into poverty
It is hoped the concessions will convince Labour MPs to support the government at Tuesday’s crunch vote on the reforms but disability groups have warned of creating a “two-tier” system for both existing and future claimants.
While some Labour MPs have said they will now back the government after last week’s concessions, the PM is still facing a major rebellion, with 50-60 Labour MPs still said to be considering voting against the government tomorrow.
The Labour MP Nadia Whittome said on Monday: “Even with the concessions, the government’s own analysis forecasts that 150,000 people could still be pushed into poverty by disability benefit cuts by the end of the decade. As Labour MPs, we didn’t enter politics to make struggling constituents poorer. We must stop this Bill.”
Charlotte Gill, Head of Campaigns and Public Affairs at the MS Society, says: “We’re appalled that the government are choosing to rush through this reckless and harmful bill. It’s outrageous that MPs are being asked to vote for dramatic welfare changes, without having time to properly scrutinise their impact. By the government’s own admission these catastrophic cuts will still push at least 150,000 more people into poverty.
“MS is a debilitating, exhausting and unpredictable condition which gets worse over time. PIP is a lifeline not a luxury for many people with MS. We all need reassurance that this vital support will be there for us whether we need it today, tomorrow or in a couple of years. We urge MPs to use their power to prevent a disaster. The only way to protect disability benefits is to halt this bill immediately.”
Welfare chief Secretary Liz Kendall announced last week that changes to PIP will only apply to new claimants from November 2026. Ministers also rowed back on plans to cut the health-related element of Universal Credit after 126 Labour MPs signed an amendment that would have effectively killed the Government’s Bill.
Ms Kendall, the Work and Pensions Secretary, will update MPs on the changes later on Monday.
A No 10 spokesman said: “The broken welfare system we inherited is failing people every single day. It traps millions, it tells them the only way to get help is to declare they’ll never work again and then abandons them.
“No help, no opportunity, no dignity and we can’t accept that. For too long, meaningful reform to a failing system has been ducked.”
The PM is expected to continue talking to would-be rebels in the lead-up to Tuesday’s vote, when the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Bill faces its first Commons test.
