The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast document was published on the Budget watchdog’s website early, the latest in a series of leaks and early disclosures in the run-up to Ms Reeves’ statement
The UK’s economy will grow more slowly than predicted over the next four years, according to a forecast reviewing Rachel Reeves’ autumn Budget that was published early in a blunder before the Chancellor got to announce her plans. Sir Keir Starmer has refused to say whether he will order an investigation into budget leaks.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch pressed him on the economic consequences of rumoured policy changes. “The Prime Minister doesn’t seem to appreciate the impact of these budget leaks on the UK economy,” she said, as she urged him to “punish” those responsible for briefings.
Sir Keir said: “It’s literally about 25 minutes before the Budget will be set out where we’ll take further decisions, the Chancellor set it out. But thanks to the decisions she’s already taken, we’ve got five million extra NHS appointments, waiting lists are coming down, mortgages are cheaper, we have expanded free school meals.
“That is 100,000 children lifted out of poverty, a moral mission for this Government. Compare that to the record opposite, any day of the week.”
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast document is not meant to be released until after the Chancellor has delivered her Budget in the House of Commons, which is taking place today (Wednesday, November 26). But it was published on the Budget watchdog’s website early, the latest in a series of leaks and early disclosures in the run-up to Ms Reeves’ statement.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said in a statement: “A link to our economic and fiscal outlook document went live on our website too early this morning. It has been removed. We apologise for this technical error and have initiated an investigation into how this happened.
“We will be reporting to our oversight board, the Treasury, and the Commons Treasury Committee on how this happened, and we will make sure this does not happen again. Our economic and fiscal outlook and supporting documents will be released when the Chancellor has finished her speech.”
The OBR forecast gross domestic product would grow by 1.5% this year, an increase from its earlier 1% forecast. But it downgraded growth in 2026 from 1.9% to 1.4%, in 2027 from 1.8% to 1.5%, in 2028 from 1.7% to 1.5% and in 2029 from 1.8% to 1.5%.
The OBR document also confirmed Rachel Reeves’s Budget “raises taxes by amounts rising to £26 billion in 2029-30, through freezing personal tax thresholds and a host of smaller measures”. The freeze in tax thresholds will result in 780,000 more basic-rate, 920,000 more higher-rate, and 4,000 more additional-rate income tax payers in 2029/30, raking in about £8 billion for the Exchequer.
The freeze will extend for three years to 2030/31. Other personal tax changes include £4.7 billion through charging national insurance on salary-sacrificed pension contributions, and £2.1 billion through increasing tax rates on dividends, property and savings income by two percentage points.
Measures revealed by the OBR document include:
– The amount of headroom the Government has against the Chancellor’s day-to-day spending rule will widen to £22 billion in 2029-30, £12 billion more than in March.
– The 5p cut in fuel duty will remain in place until September 2026, when it will be reversed through a staggered approach.
– The two-child benefit cap is being removed at an estimated cost of £3 billion by 2029-30.
– A high-value council tax surcharge on properties worth more than £2 million will raise £0.4 billion in 2029-30.
– Debt will rise from 95% of GDP this year to 96.1% by the end of the decade.
Looking for more from MyLondon? Subscribe to our daily newsletters here for the latest and greatest updates from across London.
