If an election were held tomorrow, an MRP poll by YouGov estimates that Labour would not only lose their majority, dropping 233 seats, but would become the second party by some distance in a hung parliament in which Reform UK would be the largest party. According to YouGov’s projections, Nigel Farage’s party would win 271 seats.
Labour would have the second most with 178 and the Lib Dems would be in third place with 81. The Conservative Party would find themselves in fourth place with just 46 seats, 76 fewer than they have in the current parliament.
In Scotland, the Scottish National Party (SNP) would once again claim the status as the largest party north of the border. YouGov’s prediction, should a general election be happening now, is that the SNP would win 38 seats.
The Greens would win just three extra seats, taking them to seven. You can see how your constituency is predicted to vote by using our interactive map:
The YouGov predictions would see Reform take seats from each of the three main parties. Labour would lose 194 seats to Nigel Farage’s party, while the Conservatives would lose 69 and the Lib Dems two.
Labour would also lose 27 seats to the SNP in Scotland, six seats to the Conservatives in England, three seats to the Greens, three to Plaid, and one to the Liberal Democrats.
Reform’s strongest showing in a seat they don’t currently control is Castle Point in Essex. The YouGov projections have the party on 43% despite it having voted Tory at the last election.
The Labour seat of Barnsley North, meanwhile, is also predicted to go to Reform with 42% of the vote share. Barnsley South (Labour) and Louth & Horncastle (Conservative) are also predicted to vote 42% for Reform.
The three Labour seats of Dudley, Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes, and Easington will vote 41% for Reform, and in eight Labour seats it will go 40% Reform – Makerfield, Rawmarsh & Conisbrough, Stoke-on-Trent North, Amber Valley, Normanton & Hemsworth, Hornchurch & Upminster, South West Norfolk, and North Warwickshire & Bedworth.
How Londoners could vote
Reford would win five constituencies in London if a general election were held tomorrow. Two of the seats voted Labour at the last election, while the other three voted Conservative.
Hornchurch and Upminster would shift most heavily to Reform. Nigel Farage’s party would win 40% of the vote according to the predictions. The Conservatives, current holders of the seat, would pick up just 26% of the vote and Labour 20%.
In Old Bexley and Sidcup, the Conservatives would lose to Reform who are predicted to get 33% of the vote to the Tories’ 28%, and in Romford Reform would pick up 34% of the vote compared to 26% for the incumbent Conservatives.
Labour would lose Bexleyheath and Crayford to Reform, picking up just 24% of the vote to Reform’s 35%. Reform would also pick up 35% of the vote in Dagenham and Rainham, with Labour getting just 29%. Labour are also predicted to lose another three seats to the Conservatives – Chelsea and Fulham, Hendon, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
