Startling new polls indicate that if a general election were to take place today, Reform UK would emerge as the frontrunner but would still require a coalition to govern.
Nigel Farage’s party is predicted by YouGov analysts to secure an astonishing 271 seats following an extensive mega-poll involving around 11,500 voters. According to these forecasts, Labour’s current dominance of 411 seats would be dramatically slashed to just 178, with the Conservative Party falling to fourth place behind the Lib Dems.
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The figures point towards the likelihood of a coalition government, as no single party is expected to achieve the 325-seat majority needed to rule alone, as reported by the Mirror. Even a partnership with the Conservatives wouldn’t provide enough stability, necessitating at least eight additional MPs to form a “rainbow coalition” encompassing three or more parties.
To add to Keir Starmer’s woes, the Scottish National Party (SNP) is set to reassert its dominance in Scotland with a gain of 29 seats, bringing their total to 38. YouGov remarked: “Reform’s meteoric rise to becoming comfortably the largest party in a hung parliament is driven by impressive performances right across the country – including in Scotland.”
A fresh poll has catapulted Reform to the forefront with 26% of the overall vote, surpassing Labour’s 23%, while the Conservatives are trailing with an estimated 18%, and the Lib Dems at 15%. The Green Party is also on the rise, anticipated to hit 11%.
The survey suggests that Reform could emerge as the dominant party in several regions, including the East Midlands, East of England, North East, South East, Wales, West Midlands, and Yorkshire and the Humber, and might even tie with Labour in the North West.
According to YouGov’s analysis, Labour could face a staggering loss of 194 seats to Reform, not to mention additional losses to other parties such as the SNP, Tories, Greens, Plaid Cymru, and the Lib Dems.
Deputy PM Angela Rayner and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper are among the high-profile figures expected to suffer defeats, as per YouGov’s predictions.
Labour has ramped up their critique of Reform recently, with Deputy PM Angela Rayner delivering a fierce rebuke of Nigel Farage’s ‘sweetheart deal’ with international billionaires during Wednesday’s PMQs. Farage’s ‘Britannia Card’ initiative is reportedly set to grant a £34 billion boon to ultra-wealthy foreign tycoons.
Rayner echoed concerns that the proposal represents a “betrayal” of the working-class, stating that “the mask has slipped”.
The Reform Party’s proposal to offer tax perks to wealthy internationals via a one-off £250,000 payment has raised eyebrows, with experts warning it may lead to a jaw-dropping deficit of £34 billion in tax revenues, while substantially favouring elite pockets.
Ms Rayner did not hold back, asserting: “The mask has slipped again this week.”
Her fiery commentary escalated as she criticised: “The honourable member for Clacton (Mr Farage) demands billions more in unfunded tax cuts for the very richest while he marches through the lobby in the House of Commons to vote against sick pay for the lowest earners.”
In a resolute statement, Rayner added, “We know who will pay Reform tax breaks, Mr. Speaker, for overseas billionaires – tax hikes on working people and patients being charged to see their doctor. Labour won’t let that happen.”
Earlier, Mr Farage had expressed his limitations by admitting he was “not clever enough” to handle queries on the potential economic repercussions of the plans he advocates.
Tax Policy Associates have been unequivocally critical in their evaluation of Mr Farage’s plan, pointing out that it would significantly sweeten the deal for the super-rich, seemingly dismantling rather than building upon earlier Conservative strategies. The scholarly review wrapped up by dismissing any broad fiscal upside from such undertakings, confining the windfall to “a relatively small number of very wealthy people”.
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