A new study has revealed as many as 32,000 people could die in extreme weather events should global temperatures continue to rise, resulting in weekly death tolls not seen since the COVID pandemic
Extreme weather patterns could kill tens of thousands in weekly death tolls not seen since COVID, a new study has warned.
Weather patterns that resulted in some of the continent’s most extreme heat waves in the past 30 years could prove to be more deadly if they occurred in today’s hotter climate, claim scientists at Stanford University. Using AI and statistical techniques, the scientists argue a heatwave similar to one seen in 2003 could result in 17,800 excess deaths in a single week.
Should the worst-case scenario happen without any preventative measures, it could result in the highest weekly death tolls since the Covid pandemic. Even more severe temperature rises could see even more deaths scientists warned.
Study co-author Marshall Burke, a Stanford professor of environmental social sciences said: “These events could be as bad as some of the worst weeks of Covid by mid-century.”
“We showed that if these same weather systems were to occur after we’ve trapped a lot more heat in the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, the intensity of the heat waves gets stronger and the death toll rises,” said lead study author Christopher Callahan. The study, published in Nature Climate Change on Tuesday, said global temperature have ticked toward 1.5C above those before the industrial revolution.
Alarmingly, it was also noted that global temperatures today are about 0.7C more than the 2003 average. That same year a heatwave claimed the lives of more than 20,000 people in Europe.
Temperatures spoked to about 38C in two weeks across western Europe in 2003. William Wrigley Professor in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability Noah Diffenbaugh said: “That event, which was devastating from a health point of view, was extremely statistically rare at the time that it happened, and yet we know it’s possible the weather conditions that produced it could happen again, but in what is now a much warmer climate.”
Researchers believe as many as 32,000 excess deaths should temperatures reach 3C above pre-industrial levels in the event of a similar heatwave. Until now researchers had not known the possible death toll should a similar weather event happen.
Scientists have known for some time that extreme heat waves could intensify amid a continued warming of the planet. Researchers argue effective measures are needed to lessen the worst effects of heat surges.
The authors estimate one in 10 deaths could be prevented by expanding access to air conditioning and shade, retrofitting homes and schools to improve ventilation and checking on isolated people.
“If novel or faster adaptations emerge, these death tolls could be reduced more,” Callahan said. Hospitals could also prepare by building capacity for these type of events, rather than planning using average temperatures.
“A lot of the reason for excess deaths is because we are just so underprepared for these events. Similar to during COVID when the health system was just fully disrupted, people can’t get to the hospital, hospitals have to discharge people early,” Burke said. “So, even if you have something bad happen to you that’s not related to heat at all, your care is going to suffer and health outcomes will worsen.”
