Average bus speeds in London have dipped, and passenger numbers with them
Slower bus speeds are sparking a dramatic decline in ridership in London which will have a knock-on effect on the Mayor’s active transport goals and Transport for London’s (TfL) revenue, the London Assembly has been told.
Average bus speeds on the capital’s streets in 2024/25 were just 9.17mph – down from 10.27mph four years ago, according to data obtained by City Hall.
In August – the latest month for which data was available – the mean speed of a London bus was just 9.06mph. Meanwhile, passenger numbers fell for the first time since the pandemic last year, from 1.869 billion to 1.842 billion.
Yesterday (Tuesday 9 December) the London Assembly Transport Committee heard that the “endless traffic” bus drivers are forced to navigate has seen commuters look to alternative transport methods.
Paul Lynch, Managing Director of Stagecoach London, said: “We are used to difficult traffic conditions in London – it’s our bread and butter. However, conditions have worsened over the last few years to a point where somebody who works for me in charge of our service performance and has been around for 40 years operating buses in London says it’s the worst he has ever seen.
“The biggest single impact, of course, is on the customer, on the people using the buses, it’s making them less attractive and less reliable for them. It’s got to be one of the reasons why bus passenger numbers are declining at the same time that bus speeds are.
“There’s work by London TravelWatch, our organisation and others, which shows there is a direct relationship between bus speeds and bus patronage. And unfortunately we’re experiencing that in London now.”
The latest TfL annual ‘Travel in London’ report shows a decline of 1.5 per cent in bus journeys compared to last year, with three per cent more journeys on the London Underground and 10 per cent more on the Elizabeth line.
In the document, officials revealed that average bus journey time was 34.3 minutes, higher than the 34.1 minute target.
The migration will hit the transport body’s wallet significantly if the trend continues, according to Michael Roberts, Chief Executive of London TravelWatch. He also said those on lower incomes and with reduced mobility, who tend to opt for buses over other forms of transport, may not end up paying their travel fare at all.
“Increasing average journey times makes bus travel less attractive”, he told London Assembly members, “It means reduced patronage, which in turn means reduced income to TfL.
“It also means increased cost to TfL because you need more buses to run a given level of service, and that is obviously of concern to the travelling public more generally to the extent that it bites upon TfL’s ability to invest in the transport service network more generally.
“And ultimately, if it means buses are less attractive and people are using them to a lower degree, it’s it is bad for London because buses are an effective use of road space, and it’s going to have an impact on keeping London moving.
“For every ten percent reduction in journey speeds, there’s a six percent reduction in demand.”
His organisation found that to meet the Mayor’s target of 80% of all trips in London being made on foot, by cycle or using public transport by 2041, then we need a 40 per cent increase in bus journeys. TfL’s own analysis suggests numbers need to increase from 5.1 million daily bus journeys currently to nine million by 2041.
They also found that if buses in London increase their speed by an average of 1mph, it could save up to £200 million per year and generate additional revenue of £85 million from increased passenger numbers as a result.
Some boroughs have it worse than others, with average speeds of under 7mph seen in the City of London, Camden and Westminster.
Meanwhile, the highest average speeds were seen in the outer boroughs of Bexley, Hillingdon and Havering, all of which were over 11mph. Following the meeting, Elly Baker, who chairs the Transport Committee, told the Local Democracy Reporting Service (LDRS): “The meeting about bus journey times was a real eye-opener for the Transport Committee.
“Bus journey times have been increasing since 2020, and since 2022/23, TfL has not met its target for bus journey times. This investigation should help us put together some strong recommendations to help the buses catch up and shorten the journey times for all Londoners.”
Bus safety campaigner Tom Kearney added: “The Transport Committee Session confirmed some well-evidenced facts – that bus operators can only make a profit by meeting TfL’s contracted timetable targets, and that drivers have no control over the many issues on London’s roads that cause them to miss those targets.
“Since TfL financially incentivises operators for timely performance but does not financially incentivise them for safety, it would suggest that TfL has long prioritised the convenience of users and profits of operators over the safety and welfare of drivers and those compelled to share the road with them.”
TfL have pledged to implement their Bus Action Plan which they say will result in quicker passenger journeys.
This includes the creation of 25km of new bus lanes by this month, 1,900 traffic signals that prioritise buses and making 85km of existing bus lanes operational 24/7.
However, they were warned that recent moves towards promoting active travel had inhibited buses from carrying out their duty at speed.
Kevan Stagg, Chair of the Unite London & Eastern Passenger Committee, said: “There’s been a lot of own goals. You’re looking for space for pedestrians, so we’ve narrowed roads. Cyclists – once again we’ve narrowed it. Now, quite often if you’re behind a a push bike, you can’t overtake it as a bus driver because there just isn’t enough room.”
This was a sentiment similarly expressed in the House of Lords last week during a debate on walking and cycling paths. Lord Moylan, who has previously served on the TfL board, told peers: “At this time of year, the thoughts of many of us turn away from active travel and towards the bus.
“Much cycle infrastructure that has been installed has inhibited bus journeys and contributed to deteriorating journey times.”
Transport minister Lord Hendy, who was Transport Commissioner under Mayor Boris Johnson, responded: “He and the Mayor of London directed me, as the commissioner of transport, to take out more road space for the benefit of cyclists than probably anybody has ever done in London.
“It certainly is the case that on some occasions that design has reduced bus service speeds, with a detrimental effect on overall journey times.
“The answer is to give local transport authorities the powers, the money and the training to do the job correctly.
“Another thing that has been mentioned here before is the additional money for training for local transport authority officers so that the design of cycle lanes, as part of the general highways network, is a benefit to cyclists without being too much of a detriment to other traffic, especially buses.”
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