Arsenal confirmed their participation in the UEFA Champions League on Sunday evening following their 1-0 win over Newcastle United. Rewind three years and at St James’ Park, a defeat to the same opponent had the complete opposite effect as Arsenal painfully watched their north London rivals sneak into fourth place.
How times have changed, even though Tottenham could join Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League next season, should they beat Manchester United in the Europa League final. For the Gunners, it has not been the season they would have wanted but a third straight runners up position shows at least the consistency in their position to challenge for those honours – but now it is about winning them.
That said, second place despite the win over the Magpies is still not completely guaranteed for the Gunners and with one game left to play they could yet regress into third spot. That is out of their hands over the next few days, however, and yet before they travel to Southampton on the final day of the season it might be that they are indeed playing a dead rubber.
This depends wholly on Manchester City, who have two games left to play with their match with Bournemouth pushed back to accommodate their participation in the FA Cup final. A final they lost this past weekend to Crystal Palace.
City host the Cherries on Tuesday evening, and a win would see them climb to 68 points. Arsenal are currently on 71, which means that the only way Arsenal could lose out to second spot would be on goal difference.
Currently, Man City are 10 goals worse off than their old title rivals. Across the three relevant matches: Man City vs Bournemouth, Fulham vs Man City and Southampton vs Arsenal we would need to see Guardiola’s team pick up two wins, Mikel Arteta’s side lose and the gap in goal close by that margin of 10.
Both sides have scored 67 goals this season, and if the goal difference is equal, this becomes the next measure to determine the standings. However, this remains incredibly unlikely, and the percentage probabilities remain in the high nineties that Arsenal will end the season in what is becoming a very familiar placement for them.
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